Response time assessment in forest fire spread simulation: An integrated methodology for efficient exploitation of available prediction time

•A characterization methodology for 2-stage fire spread prediction method is proposed.•The 2-stage method is based on evolutionary techniques, involving many simulations.•Early detection of lengthy simulations allows us to speed up the process considerably.•Replacement of lengthy simulations involves minimal degradation in the predictions.•Results are based on a real case study of a large fire in Spain in the year 2012.

This work details a framework developed to shorten the time needed to perform fire spread predictions. The methodology presented relies on a two-stage prediction strategy which introduces a calibration stage in order to relieve the effects of uncertainty on simulator input parameters. Early assessment of the response time and quality of the results obtained constitute a key component in this method. This automatic and intelligent process of identification of lengthy simulations that slow down the course of the predictions presents a very high hit ratio. However, discarding certain simulations from the adjustment process (based on evolutionary algorithms) could lead to loss of accuracy in our predictions. A strong statistical study to analyze the impact of this action on our final predictions is reported. This study is based on a real fire which burnt 13,000 ha in the region of Catalonia (north-east of Spain) in the summer of 2012.