Options for Victorian agriculture in a “new” climate: Pilot study linking climate change and land suitability modelling

This pilot project determines the potential for growing Cool Climate Grapes, high yield pasture and blue gum across Gippsland (Victoria, Australia), and the likely shift in that potential as projected climate change occurs in the region. It provides an indication of the information that can be generated combining Land Suitability Analysis and climate change scenarios. By considering the changing suitability of a few key agricultural enterprises in this region, the project offers an important direction for the agricultural elements of the Victorian Greenhouse Strategy. This pilot project utilises Land Suitability Analysis (LSA) developed by the former Victorian Department of Natural Resources and Environment (DNRE) under the National Land and Water Resources Audit of Australia and further enhanced with Local Government and Catchment Management Authorities across Victoria. This modelling technique allows for an assessment of impacts on a wide range of commodities beyond the historic focus of cropping and pasture models. Following a series of workshops with agronomists, soil scientists, climate scientists, strategic planners and growers, a series of maps/overlays were prepared for Gippsland showing potential suitability of blue gum plantations, Cool Climate Grapes and high yield pasture, as an initial illustration of the methodology. This potential suitability has since been adjusted/modified using a variety of climate change scenarios developed by CSIRO Climate Impacts Group, resulting in an assessment of the change in potential suitability for each enterprise at years 2020 and 2050. The resultant work can be analysed using Geographic Information Systems (GIS) to consider change over time and space in the region. Combined with changes in water availability, this may act as an innovative and powerful decision support tool for policy makers in government and industry.