Research papersEstimation of the spatiotemporal dynamics of snow covered area by using cellular automata models

•Distributed dynamics of snow cover area is modeled by a mixed cellular automaton.•The calibration step requires experimental data of snow cover area.•Driving variables are precipitation and temperature indexes and elevation.•An application to the important Sierra Nevada mountain range is shown.

Given the need to consider the cryosphere in water resources management for mountainous regions, the purpose of this paper is to model the daily spatially distributed dynamics of snow covered area (SCA) by using calibrated cellular automata models. For the operational use of the calibrated model, the only data requirements are the altitude of each cell of the spatial discretization of the area of interest and precipitation and temperature indexes for the area of interest. For the calibration step, experimental snow covered area data are needed. Potential uses of the model are to estimate the snow covered area when satellite data are absent, or when they provide a temporal resolution different from the operational resolution, or when the satellite images are useless because they are covered by clouds or because there has been a sensor failure. Another interesting application is the simulation of SCA dynamics for the snow covered area under future climatic scenarios. The model is applied to the Sierra Nevada mountain range, in southern Spain, which is home to significant biodiversity, contains important water resources in its snowpack, and contains the most meridional ski resort in Europe.