The application of Dynamic Linear Bayesian Models in hydrological forecasting: Varying Coefficient Regression and Discount Weighted Regression

•Dynamic Linear Bayesian Models (DLBM) were explored for hydrological forecasting.•DLBM Varying Coefficient Regression and Discount Weighted Regression were tested.•Annual hydrograph modeling and 1, 2 and 3 day lead time forecasting were explored.•The Upper Narew River in Poland was used as the study area.•Overall, the DLBM models performed very well.

SummaryA novel implementation of Dynamic Linear Bayesian Models (DLBM), using either a Varying Coefficient Regression (VCR) or a Discount Weighted Regression (DWR) algorithm was used in the hydrological modeling of annual hydrographs as well as 1-, 2-, and 3-day lead time stream flow forecasting. Using hydrological data (daily discharge, rainfall, and mean, maximum and minimum air temperatures) from the Upper Narew River watershed in Poland, the forecasting performance of DLBM was compared to that of traditional multiple linear regression (MLR) and more recent artificial neural network (ANN) based models. Model performance was ranked DLBM-DWR > DLBM-VCR > MLR > ANN for both annual hydrograph modeling and 1-, 2-, and 3-day lead forecasting, indicating that the DWR and VCR algorithms, operating in a DLBM framework, represent promising new methods for both annual hydrograph modeling and short-term stream flow forecasting.