Prospective analysis of energy security: A practical life-cycle approach focused on renewable power generation and oriented towards policy-makers

•Formulation and application of the Renewable Energy Security Index (RESI).•Prospective analysis combining Energy Systems Modelling and Life Cycle Assessment.•Feasibility proven through two case studies of power generation in Spain and Norway.•Good coverage of key energy security aspects (availability, affordability, etc.).•Novel and easy-to-report index suitable for energy policy-making.

Energy security is a wide-ranging term to encompass issues such as security of supply, reliability of infrastructures, affordability and environmental friendliness. This article develops a robust indicator - the Renewable Energy Security Index, RESI - to enrich the body of knowledge associated with the presence of renewable energy technologies within national electricity production mixes. RESI is built by combining environmental life cycle assessment and techno-economic energy systems modelling. Spain and Norway are used as illustrative case studies for the prospective analysis of power generation from an energy security standpoint. In the Spanish case, with a diversified electricity production mix and a growing presence of renewable technologies, RESI favourably “evolves” from 0.36 at present to 0.65 in 2050 in a business-as-usual scenario, reaching higher values in a highly-restricted CO2 scenario. The Norwegian case study attains RESI values similar to 1 due to the leading role of renewable electricity (mainly hydropower) regarding both satisfaction of national demand and exportation of electricity surplus. A widespread use of RESI as a quantifiable energy security index of national power generation sectors is found to be feasible and practical for both analysts and energy policy-makers, covering a significant number of energy security aspects.

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