The impact of social and weather drivers on the historical electricity demand in Europe

Annual load curves and temperature sensitivities of nations with high electric heating or cooling demand can assist in the prediction of future electricity and other fuel consumption under increased electrification and climate change scenarios. Fourier periodicity and residual demand analysis suggest that, in addition to grid storage, European countries with mutual energy needs - in terms of seasonal demand and generation surplus - might benefit from international trade to balance unmet demand. Our study of consumption variability in response to social and weather drivers constitutes a valuable resource to formulate country-specific demand scenarios, as well as to improve the design of energy system models.