A maximum entropy approach to the estimation of spatially and sectorally disaggregated electricity load curves

This paper proposes a novel nonlinear programming model based on the maximum entropy approach. The model allows for electricity load curve estimation at arbitrary spatial, sectoral and temporal resolution, from partial and possibly inconsistent information. The proposed model integrates and systematically utilizes data usually used by either Top-Down or Bottom-Up approaches. In a case study using German data it is shown that the model combines the strength of both and, at the same time, overcomes the challenges specific to Top-Down or Bottom-up estimation.