Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis for the optimal design of distributed energy systems

Finally, to identify the uncertain parameters that are mostly responsible for the variation of the economic performance of the DES, a two-step GSA is launched, combining the Morris method and the variance-based Sobol method. Results of the GSA indicate the energy demand patterns and the energy carrier prices as primarily responsible for the variability of the optimal system cost, while parameters like the investment costs and the technical characteristics of the technologies exert only minimal influence. The results of GSA, besides offering a better understanding of uncertainty to DES designers, also identify the parameters for which additional effort needs to be invested to reduce their uncertainty and, as a result, the uncertainty associated with DES design.