Differentiated long term projections of the hourly electricity consumption in local areas. The case of Denmark West

The model is a distribution system that distributes hourly consumption in an aggregated area to hourly consumption at each transformer station. Using econometrics, the model is estimated on national statistics for the hourly consumption by categories of customers and data for the hourly consumption at each transformer station for the years 2009-2011. Applying the model for load forecasts, a major conclusion is that different transformer stations will experience different changes both in the level - and in the hourly profile of load.