Uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis in the design of parabolic-trough direct steam generation plants for process heat applications

The economic design indicator uncertainty and global sensitivity analysis shows that the lowest relative output uncertainty is obtained by the levelized cost of energy with a coefficient of variation of 4.3%; followed by payback time with 12.1%. The largest contributors of input factors uncertainty to the levelized cost of energy uncertainty are the market discount rate and boiler efficiency, showing total sensitivity indices of 0.67 and 0.23, respectively.