Design of ultra-thin shell structures in the stochastic post-buckling range using Bayesian machine learning and optimization

A data-driven computational framework combining Bayesian regression for imperfection-sensitive quantities of interest, uncertainty quantification and multi-objective optimization is developed for the design of complex structures. The framework is used to design ultra-thin carbon fiber deployable shells subjected to two bending conditions. Significant increases in the ultimate buckling loads are shown to be possible, with potential gains on the order of 100% as compared to a previously proposed design. The key to this result is the existence of a large load reserve capability after the initial bifurcation point and well into the post-buckling range that can be effectively explored by the data-driven approach. The computational strategy here presented is general and can be applied to different problems in structural and materials design, with the potential of finding relevant designs within high-dimensional spaces.