Nuclear and old fossil phase out scenarios: Assessment of shortages, surpluses and the load factor of flexible assets with high renewable generation targets - A Belgian case study

In the coming decades Belgium will phase-out nuclear and old fossil capacity while (intermittent) renewable generation is expected to increase. We evaluate the occurrence of electricity shortages and surpluses in Belgium in 2013 and 2017, as well as the evolution of the load factors of flexible assets. Our statistical model for 2017 suggests surpluses of >2000 MW during 4% of the time. More alarmingly, the combination of an unfavorable investment climate and a nuclear phase-out plan will increase the probability of the occurrence of shortages in the near future. Therefore we suggest adapting the current priority dispatch policy for renewables in order to improve the investment climate for flexible assets and reduce the surplus risks.