A Bayesian Belief Network to assess rate of changes in coral reef ecosystems

Evaluation of the model was conducted through sensitivity analyses and data integration was fundamental to obtain a balanced dataset. Scenario analyses, conducted to assess the effects of stressors on the reef framework state, suggested that calcifying organisms and carbonate production, rather than bioerosion, had the largest influence on the reef carbonate budgetary state. Despite the overall budget remaining positive, anthropogenic pressures, particularly deterioration of water quality, affected reef carbonate production, representing a warning signal for potential changes in the reef state.