Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
6962929 | Environmental Modelling & Software | 2015 | 13 Pages |
Abstract
This work proposes to address a lack of conceptual consensus surrounding the concept of vulnerability, by fostering a minimal definition as a measure of potential future harm, and by basing it on a stochastic controlled dynamical system framework. Harm is defined as a normative judgment on a trajectory. Considering all the possible trajectories from an initial state leads to the definition of vulnerability indicators as statistics derived from the probability distribution of harm values. This framework 1) promotes a dynamic view of vulnerability by eliciting its temporal dimension and 2) clarifies the descriptive and normative aspects of a system's representation. As illustrated by a simple model of lake eutrophication, this work makes vulnerability a precise yet flexible concept which fosters discussion on trade-offs between vulnerability sources, and also on adaptation. Links with economics, with control theory, and with algorithmic methods such as dynamic programming are highlighted.
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Computer Science
Software
Authors
Charles Rougé, Jean-Denis Mathias, Guillaume Deffuant,