Dynamic fuzzy models in agroecosystem modeling

A new concept of dynamic fuzzy models used to estimate yield of agricultural crops (demonstrated for winter wheat) under the terms of climate change is introduced. Results of this fuzzy approach were compared to simulation results of MONICA, a traditional deterministic agro-ecosystem model, and YIELDSTAT, a statistics-based yield estimation model, for the federal state of Thuringia, Germany. The pros and cons of the fuzzy approach are discussed in terms of modeling effort, accuracy, calculation speed and maintenance. Some enhancements, including ensemble simulation using different experts models, are discussed. The main aim of this paper is to prove the concept of the dynamic fuzzy approach.