Using a conceptual Bayesian network to investigate environmental management of vegetable production in the Lake Taihu region of China

In general the network suggests that N exports are more sensitive to transport factors (i.e. runoff volumes) than source factors (i.e. fertiliser application rates) although the cumulative effects of excessive fertiliser were not considered. Post-mobilisation mitigations such as wetlands and ecoditches appear to be particularly effective in decreasing N exports however their implementation on a regional scale may be limited by land availability. While optimising N inputs would be prudent, the network suggests that better irrigation practice, including improved irrigation scheduling, using less imported water and optimising rainfall utilisation would be more effective in achieving environmental goals than simply limiting N supply.