Futures of distributed small-scale renewable energy in Finland - A Delphi study of the opportunities and obstacles up to 2025

Distributed small-scale renewable energy (RE) production and markets expand globally. Policies play a major role in the growth. Distributed systems can help in achieving official targets, as well as offer economic opportunities for small-scale energy producers and the producers, retailers and installers of energy devices. However, small-scale energy production in households, farms or small enterprise has received relatively little attention in Finland to date. The opportunities and challenges of distributed small-scale RE sector in Finland were assessed in this study. Data was gathered using a Delphi-based method. 26 experts within the RE technology chain participated. Results were discussed and further elaborated in an expert workshop. Five scenarios representing views of the expert panel were produced for the development up to 2025: 1) Stagnation, 2) Stable slow growth, 3) Multifaceted reform, 4) Solar business prosperity, and 5) Electricity expansion at the grass root level. In no scenario was significant RE growth combined with little governmental support. Underdeveloped business concepts, insufficient information and availability of professional services, lacking profitability of small-scale energy sales, and the price of production systems were identified as key obstacles for distributed energy production in Finland. Removing barriers in domestic markets would also support exports.