Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7256100 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change | 2016 | 14 Pages |
Abstract
The study presents an extensive System Dynamics simulation model, running up to 2050, employing an agent-based approach and incorporating major factors that influence the technology transition in the EU light duty vehicle road transport sector. The model aims at better understanding and analysing market trends. It is a comprehensive representation of EU powertrain technology transition, at member state level, and includes interactions and feedbacks between major stakeholders influencing the evolution of the market shares. The model seeks to integrate a wider range of market, industry and technology dynamics compared to other known models to date. Five scenarios are conducted to explore the dynamics of the powertrain transitions under different oil prices, GDP growth, learning rates, purchase subsidies and EU emission targets. The findings illustrate that the developed model is able to give strategic insights to authorities, manufacturers and infrastructure providers regarding their respective decisions, policies and challenges in relation to medium and long-term trends in the EU road transport sector.
Related Topics
Social Sciences and Humanities
Business, Management and Accounting
Business and International Management
Authors
Guzay Pasaoglu, Gillian Harrison, Lee Jones, Andrew Hill, Alexandre Beaudet, Christian Thiel,