Real-time foresight - Preparedness for dynamic networks

Foresight processes help decision makers plan for potential, desirable or probable futures. With increasing unpredictability, under pressure of time and in multi-agency situations, however, traditional foresight and strategic management fail. In this paper, we redefine a foresight process for real time network management instructed by the extreme case of collaboration in global disaster management. We use an actor-network approach to explore on global and local levels emerging networks. We find that ad hoc and long term network dynamics are governance structures for unpredictable collaboration just as traditional goal setting and targeting is conducive to stable environments. Altogether five dynamic network patterns are found that underlie successful ad hoc collaboration: (1) identification of heterogeneous network actors and early alignment of interests (2) development of a shared vision for heterogeneous goals (3) use of boundary objects (4) punctual directness and distance among implementing actors (5) intense local integration of the focal actor. Governmental decision makers, corporate actors and voluntary associations who are cognisant of dynamic network patterns can use them for rapid collaboration instead of long-range foresight and constituent planning. To base leadership on dynamic network principles instead of traditional strategic management means to adopt a new real-time foresight for collaborative innovation.