Effect of socio-economic factors on EV/HEV/PHEV adoption rate in Ontario

As a response to the threat of pollution and greenhouse gas emissions, Alternative Fuel Vehicles (AFVs), namely, Electric Vehicles (EVs), Hybrid Electric Vehicles (HEVs) and Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles (PHEVs) have been invented. The purpose of this study is to analyze the impact of socio-economic factors on AFV adoption rates in Ontario between the years 2012 to 2050. This paper focuses on analyzing EV, HEV and PHEV popularity in Ontario and discusses various socio-economic factors affecting adoption rates. The number of light duty vehicles sold in the future is initially forecasted. In the next step, a penetration function is developed which consists of two parts; the diffusion rate and the socio-economic factors. Three general scenarios are considered when deploying the penetration function. Each scenario presents the weight assigned to the diffusion rate and the socio-economic factors. The socio-economic section is developed by using the historical trend of the all-in costs of vehicles over the time period of years 1996-2012. Vehicles' all-in costs depend on drivers' age, gender, location, monthly insurance, daily driving distance, and traffic, in addition to production year, make, model, trim, body and transmission of vehicles. In this study, aggressive, average and mild all-in costs are studied for the adoption rates for male and female drivers separately. Overall, our results indicate that EV, HEV and PHEV adoption will increase substantially in the future, comprising of approximately 30%-38% (dependent on the considered scenario) of the total conventional vehicles sold by 2050.