Structural change in Chinese economy: Impacts on energy use and CO2 emissions in the period 2013-2030

In comparison with the reference scenario, the reduction in CO2 emission level in Policy scenario is less than 13 by 2030 even with huge investment in renewable energy capacity and a clear turn away from carbon-intensive growth pattern. Cumulatively the difference of emissions between the Reference scenario and Policy scenario within 2013-2030 is less than 20%. The Chinese CO2 intensity and energy intensity targets are rather stringent. Reaching the CO2 intensity target is difficult even with the optimistic assumption of fast expansion of renewable energy capacity and fast structural change. However, while the renewable energy capacity grows fast, targets set for it are not equally ambitious. The set CO2 intensity and energy intensity targets call for concretization of energy policy.