Scenarios for the second generation ethanol in Brazil

The objective of this paper is to build scenarios for the ethanol industry in Brazil, considering the technology of the second generation ethanol. The theoretical framework draws on the field of studies of the future, scenario construction methods and concepts of stakeholder analysis. The method for constructing the scenarios employs techniques of environmental analysis, stakeholder analysis and consulting with experts. The variables “Creating subsidies for consolidation of second generation ethanol” and “Price of oil” formed the axes of the scenarios. Four scenarios were developed based on the contrast of the variables and on checking their internal consistency, as follows: “Cellulosic integration,” where the second generation ethanol is the world fuel; “Bioelectrical world” with no investments on the production of second generation ethanol, “Fossil World” that shows the decline of the ethanol market, and “Apocalypse,” which features an energy crisis. For each scenario, the respective plots and logic diagrams are presented. This paper presents two types of contributions: the first are the scenarios that can be used in the development of public policy and as a tool for decision makers working in the energy sector, the second contribution is to the knowledge of future studies to provide an orderly construction of scenarios.