Downscaling long term socio-economic scenarios at city scale: A case study on Paris

Main drivers of urban sprawl and climate and flood vulnerability appear to be local demographic growth and local policies; global factors, such as energy and transport prices, even including possible peak-oil and carbon taxes, have only a limited influence on them. Conversely, transport-related greenhouse gas emissions are mainly driven by global factors, namely vehicle efficiency changes, not by land use. As a consequence, very strict urban policies - including reconstruction - would become necessary to control emissions from urban transportation if technologies reveal unable to do so. These scenarios are a useful input for the design and assessment of mitigation and adaptation policies at local scale.