Modeling trend processes in parametric mortality models

In this paper, we propose an alternative trend process which builds on the patterns observed in the historical data. Future trend changes occur randomly over time, and also the trend change magnitude is stochastic. Furthermore, we show how the parameters of this trend process, in particular the probability of observing a trend change in a certain year and the distribution for the trend change magnitude, can be estimated from historical data. We also outline how uncertainty in the parameter estimates can be accounted for. Finally, we compare the trend process to other trend processes which have been proposed in the literature.