The role of a low carbon fuel standard in achieving long-term GHG reduction targets

A low carbon fuel standard (LCFS) has been implemented in several regions to reduce the well-to-wheel carbon content of transportation fuels. This study explores the potential role of an LCFS in achieving deep, long-term greenhouse gas (GHG) reduction targets in a region's transportation sector, when implemented with other climate policies such as fuel economy regulations, a zero emission vehicle mandate, and carbon pricing. We develop a dynamic vehicle adoption model coupled with a fuel supply optimization model, applied to the personal and freight vehicle sectors in British Columbia, Canada. Results demonstrate that a combination of the most stringent policies is required to achieve 2050 GHG targets, including an LCFS. Further, the LCFS appears to be complementary to the other modeled policies, resulting in incremental GHG reductions in all modeled policy scenarios. The LCFS has an additive but lower impact in the personal vehicle sector, where a zero emission vehicle mandate induces a substantial transition to low carbon fuels without the LCFS. LCFS impacts are larger in the freight sector, where a switch to zero emission vehicles does not necessarily cut GHGs. Overall, with careful policy design, the LCFS could play an important role in decarbonizing the transportation sector.