Analyzing the impact of the 5CP Ontario peak reduction program on large consumers

We study the impact of this peak reduction program, called 5 Coincident Peaks (5CP), on consumers by analyzing the difficulty of predicting peak-demand days and peak hours on those days. We find that even the state-of-the art peak-prediction algorithms require consumers to curtail load ten or more times, and even then, they may not identify all five peak-demand days. We also analyze alternative policies that cold help reduce peak demand in Ontario.