Sharing the emission reduction burden in an uneven world

In the climate agreement reached in Paris on the 12th of December 2015, the participating countries agreed to provide information about their Intended Nationally Determined Contribution, and also to assess its fairness and ambition. This study contributes a transparent empirical econometric tool for such an assessment. It shows that, using a formal decomposition framework that uniquely disentangles the macroeconomic and other influences on emissions, effort sharing in global greenhouse gas reductions can be achieved in a way that promotes innovation and environmental efficiency to reduce emissions without interfering with the right of poor countries to catch up economically. Based on GDP projections by the IMF and the OECD in a sample of about 185 countries, it presents country level CO2 emission targets applicable as benchmarks to assess the adequacy and fairness of national contributions.