Determining the impact of regulatory policy on UK gas use using Bayesian analysis on publicly available data

Boiler efficiency is estimated to improve by a factor of 1.25±0.15 on replacing a conventional with a condensing boiler. Estimated savings of the policy are 176,000−127,000+86,000GWh (or 32−23+16MTons of CO2e) between introduction in 2005 and 2013. Total estimated savings by 2050 of introducing the legislation in 2005 are 2,000,000−1,500,000+1,000,000GWh (or 368−276+184MTons of CO2e), approximately 5.6 times the average annual domestic UK emissions from domestic gas use of approximately 66±5 MTons of CO2e.