Natural gas in Asia: Trade, markets and regional institutions

Natural gas trade in Asia has been dominated by long-established market structures, under which liquefied natural gas (LNG) has remained indexed based on the price of crude oil. High transaction costs in the region in recent years imply that the regional market is sub-optimally organized. Since 2010, the continued prevalence of oil-indexation has had the most adverse effect on Japan, the world's largest LNG importer. In response, Japan implemented several strategies to challenge traditional LNG pricing mechanisms in the region and ultimately reduce transaction costs. Japan's efforts include an increase in the share of spot and short-term purchases, sourcing new supplies from the United States under alternative pricing arrangements and driving regional buyer cooperation. This paper evaluates the potential effect of Japan's LNG strategy on regional pricing in the broader institutional context, arguing that LNG pricing in the region will only partially shift away from oil-indexation by the end of the decade. While recent cooperation among regional LNG importers indicates that there may be scope for change in the regional institutional setting, the degree of cooperation is insufficient to have a profound effect on regional pricing.