Reconciling self-sufficiency and renewable energy targets in a hydro dominated system: The view from British Columbia

British Columbia's energy policy is at a crossroads; the province has set a goal of electricity self-sufficiency, a 93% renewable portfolio standard and a natural gas development strategy that could increase electricity consumption by 21 TWh to 33 TWh. To ascertain the BC's supply position, a mathematical programming model of the physical workings of BC's hydroelectric generating system is developed, with head heights at the two dominant power stations treated as variable. Using historical water inflow and reservoir level data, the model is used to investigate whether BC is capable of meeting its self-sufficiency goals under various water supply and electricity demand scenarios.