Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7405582 | Energy Policy | 2012 | 7 Pages |
Abstract
A projection of future energy consumption is a vital input to many analyses of economic, energy, and environmental policies. We provide a benchmark projection which can be used to evaluate any other projection. Specifically, we base our projection of future energy consumption on its historical trend, which can be identified by an experience model. We compare our projection with forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) for eight countries-U.S., China, India, Brazil, Japan, South Korea, Canada, and Mexico. We find that the EIA's projections are lower than ours in the case of China, the U.S., India, Japan, and Mexico. This indicates that for these five countries, the EIA uses assumptions which cannot be rationalized by historical data.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Energy
Energy Engineering and Power Technology
Authors
Yusang Chang, Jinsoo Lee, Hyerim Yoon,