Dependency of global primary bioenergy crop potentials in 2050 on food systems, yields, biodiversity conservation and political stability

► Global energy crop potentials in 2050 are calculated with a biophysical biomass-balance model. ► The study is focused on dedicated energy crops, forestry and residues are excluded. ► Depending on food-system change, global energy crop potentials range from 26-141 EJ/yr. ► Exclusion of protected areas and failed states may reduce the potential up to 45%. ► The bioenergy potential may be 26% lower or 45% higher, depending on energy crop yields.