Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7408406 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2015 | 6 Pages |
Abstract
The following research note examines the utility of a simpler method of projecting the winners of the various states within the United States Electoral College system. While more advanced models may be able to center on state-level presidential winners earlier in an election year, those models, among others, continue to be confounded by states where the lead is small and/or not clear. This research will demonstrate that over the course of the elections from 2000 to 2012, a simple weighted average identifies state winners as well as the more complex models.
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Authors
Joshua T. Putnam,