Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7408571 | International Journal of Forecasting | 2014 | 7 Pages |
Abstract
We sum up the methodology of the team tololo for the Global Energy Forecasting Competition 2012: Load Forecasting. Our strategy consisted of a temporal multi-scale model that combines three components. The first component was a long term trend estimated by means of non-parametric smoothing. The second was a medium term component describing the sensitivity of the electricity demand to the temperature at each time step. We use a generalized additive model to fit this component, using calendar information as well. Finally, a short term component models local behaviours. As the factors that drive this component are unknown, we use a random forest model to estimate it.
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Authors
Raphael Nedellec, Jairo Cugliari, Yannig Goude,