Who is a Delphi 'expert'? Reflections on a bioeconomy expert selection procedure from Ireland

This paper responds to a gap in the literature regarding the selection of experts for participation in Delphi studies: a methodological forecasting tool that aims to predict the future utilising rounds of surveys with the same group of experts. Defining who the expert is, and thus who should participate, is crucial to the success of any Delphi exercise. While participant selection does not aim for representativeness, selection equity, transparency and fairness is paramount in addition to levels of appropriate knowledge and expertise. This is particularly the case when considering possible future opportunities for the multi-faceted bioeconomy; a concept that is marred with competing interests. Using renewable biological resources to meet future food, feed, fuel and fibre needs, balanced and inclusive bioeconomy development requires input, compromise and consensus from a diverse range of public, private and civil society actors across agriculture, food, marine, forestry, chemical, material and energy sectors. This paper reflects on the process of defining and recruiting Delphi experts in the bioeconomy context. Appropriate selection strategies, applicable to other futures studies, include adherence to value chain and web approaches, an expert closeness continuum and considered screening criteria. These selection strategies also facilitate reporting on the types of experts involved (and thus identifying potential sources of bias) whilst maintaining anonymity. Themes related to expert confidence, objective participation and the power of social learning are also explored. The paper concludes by outlining the benefit of the Delphi methodology as a tool of active stakeholder engagement for enhancing reflection and fostering open-mindedness towards a more sustainable future.