Déjà -Vu all over again-Libya-EU relations in 2025

Four drivers will determine Libya-EU relations over the next decade. These drivers will in turn depend on four factors: on the one hand, whether the current European foreign policies of limited scope are replaced by (1) a more cohesive EU foreign policy or (2) a broader framework − described in this paper as the political will to take on the political cost of hegemony; on the other hand, the extent to which the current multiplication of non-effective governmental institutions in Libya will be replaced by (3) national governance and (4) to what extent this governance will be pluralistically inclusive. The following paper puts forward four scenarios based on these drivers. The first describes an authoritarian national Libyan government cooperating in the context of European foreign policies predominantly focused on terrorism and migration. The second foresees the same multiplicity and limited scope of European foreign policies, while anarchy reigns in Libya. The third juxtaposes a more cohesive and broad EU foreign policy with anarchy in Libya, while the fourth presupposes inclusive national Libyan governance and the move towards a coherent EU foreign policy of a broader thematic scope.