Seeding a narrow future and harvesting an exclusionary past: The contradictions and future scenarios of agro-neoliberalism in Brazil

The prospects of agro-neoliberalism in Brazil are analysed through a critical reading of tendencies, techno-economic strategies and political disputes. Qualitative information, obtained in successive fieldwork campaigns, was used to assess trends and structure uncertainty. Empirical data also helped to describe three future scenarios that oscillate between the continuation of current agro-neoliberal trends (facilitated by the appropriation of sustainability and innovation agendas), the return of strong state interventions or the decline and eventual collapse of the agribusiness sector (due to sanitary risks or politico-economic reactions). The overall conclusion is that it is difficult to envisage the emergence of any radical alternative focused on agrarian justice or the production of basic food. Alternative developments would require a strong coordination of national and international social groups and political will to construct a different future for farmers, consumers and wider society.