Modeling air travelers' choice of flight departure and return dates on long holiday weekends

Air travel demand is typically high on long holidays. Understanding factors that influence the choice of air travelers with respect to their departure and return dates on long holidays can help airlines make effective decisions on pricing, ticket sales, and scheduling. We conduct a stated preference survey to examine the preferences of low-cost airline travelers on a particular holiday weekend. A temporally correlated logit model is developed to account for the temporal correlation of day-of-the-week alternatives. The results indicate that airfare is the key variable affecting air travel date choices. The utility of day alternatives decreases when more leave days are required before the holiday begins. Departure dates before the beginning of the holiday weekend and return dates after the end of the holiday are highly substitutable. The low-fare strategy comprising early departures and late returns can effectively increase the load factor of off-peak flights on long holiday weekends.