Stated-preference analysis to estimate the domestic transport demand following the future entry of LCCs and the inauguration of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen in Japan

Using a stated-preference survey, we examine changes in air transport demand by the entry of low cost carriers into domestic service, and with the beginning of operation of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen. In order to construct a choice model, we estimate the Nested-Logit model parameters by the two kinds of travel purposes in order to consider the differences in the price-sensitivity between business and non-business travelers. Simulation results for the each targeted OD vary in the shares of each transportation mode, depending upon the travel times, the aviation network, travel purpose. Non-business travelers who are more price-sensitive are less likely to choose the Linear Chuo Shinkansen with higher fares. On the route between the metropolitan area and Kinki area, total aviation demand will increase by the entry of LCCs to/from Tokyo-Haneda airport even when the Linear Chuo Shinkansen begins operating, showing that the development of the Linear Chuo Shinkansen service will not prevent strong growth in aviation demand for the trunk domestic routes.