Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
---|---|---|---|---|
7496551 | Spatial Statistics | 2016 | 16 Pages |
Abstract
The aim of this paper is to propose a dynamic model for describing and predicting the evolution of the Italian age-specific fertility rates over time. In particular, a well-documented model, such as a Gamma function, slightly modified in order to include time-varying stochastic parameters, is used to describe the systematic and macroscopic variations of the age-specific fertility rates over time, while a nonparametric geostatistical model is applied to describe the correlated residuals at microscopic level. Finally, predictions for the variable under study are provided and main empirical evidences of the temporal evolution for different mother's ages are discussed.
Keywords
Related Topics
Physical Sciences and Engineering
Earth and Planetary Sciences
Earth and Planetary Sciences (General)
Authors
Sandra De Iaco, Sabrina Maggio,