A prediction method of fracture probability for lapped brittle plate

•Prediction method for CDF of fracture probability for lapped brittle plate is built.•Validation of the proposed method is verified by different applications.•Influence of abrasive size on the proposed method is predicted and verified.•Influence of crack density on the proposed method is predicted and verified.

Fracture of lapped brittle plate exhibits a random and uncertain property. In this study, based on a finite element division and the fracture mechanics of micro surface cracks, a numerical prediction approach for fracture cumulative distribution function (CDF) for lapped brittle plate under non-uniform stress field is proposed. Applications under different conditions are carried out, and influences of abrasive size and crack density on the proposed prediction method are discussed. The predicted Weibull parameters are in good agreement with experimental results, which establishes validation and potential engineering value of the proposed prediction method.