Bio-based economies in Asia: Economic analysis of development of bio-based industry in China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan

This study modifies dynamic GTAP model and builds four bio-industries database to forecast path of transitioning toward bio-based economy through developing bio-pharmaceutical, biohydrogen, bioplastics and GM crops in China, India, Japan, Korea, Malaysia and Taiwan to 2050. The results reveal that the bio-pharmaceutical industry is expected to have the largest role in four bio-industries, and Japan and India will be the most sensitive countries. Biohydrogen is the most sensitive and investing efficiency bio-industry. India will be the largest market for GM products and the most sensitive market to investment in GM products in Asia. India and China will be top two countries in the bio-plastics industry. Japan is the most sensitive and investment efficient for high-tech bio-industry production. Asian countries will pay large prices to achieve 2 °C and 4 °C targets but can ease the negative impacts by decrease usage of fossil fuel gradually and developing bio-economy aggressively.