Stochastic analysis of failure of earth structures

Uncertainties in material data are a common inconvenience we face when working in the area of geotechnical engineering. Elements of mathematical statistics then often become a valuable tool for allowing reasonable predictions of the behavior of complex material systems. Such an approach is advocated in this paper through two representative examples. Stochastic analysis of failure of dump slopes (tailings) is addressed first, promoting the entire distribution function as an indispensable source of information to assess the quality of the structural system from the stability perspective. The general concept of probability of failure is then revisited in conjunction with time dependent failure of earth structures impaired by a gradual change in the level of ground water table. A conceptual assessment of the instantaneous failure rate, particularly when combined with in situ measurements, is offered as a valuable tool for the design engineer to foresee sudden and catastrophic failures.