Long term dynamics of energy systems: The Italian case

•The article has the aim to make some post-dictions of the history of energy in Italy.•We used the logistic substitution model, considering a long period of time: 1861–2010.•The mechanism of Italian Energy System is surprisingly regularly patterned.•Imported electricity can be analyzed successfully as a “new” form of energy.•Nuclear energy can be treated as a source that “penetrates” the system indirectly.

This paper analyses the dynamics of the Italian energy system, considering a long period of time: 1861–2010. The worldwide context is considered too, for the sake of comparison and in order to have a general framework. The aim is to uncover and characterize the mechanisms governing primary energy substitutions. The logistic replacement model is used, following the IIASA approach. Some characteristics of energy substitutions – such as penetration regular patterns, great inertia, de-carbonization – are verified, as well as some features not explained by the model — such as the coal resistance during the last few decades. Some particular aspects of the Italian system are highlighted; in particular – although Italy does not have nuclear energy production – according to the model it can be considered a country with an appreciable nuclear energy contribution to national consumption.