Does the sequencing of related and unrelated export diversification matter? Evidence from Colombian exporters

How does related or unrelated geographic diversification affect future related or unrelated product diversification of exporting firms, and vice-versa? This question addresses an unresolved debate, and it is important for firms in developing countries that seek to expand their product and geographical markets. Our study contributes to a current debate by highlighting the relevance of the temporal sequence and the relatedness of international diversification. Expanding the classic transaction costs and the resource-based explanations, we argue that organizational learning as well as organizational and sales (in-)efficiencies (notably through resource and product cannibalization, negative transfer and coordination costs) affect the interrelationships between product and geographic diversification. Using a panel dataset of over 14,000 firm-year observations from exporters based in Colombia, we find that (1) related geographic diversification tends to increase future product diversification; (2) related product diversification tends to decrease future geographic diversification; and (3) unrelated product diversification tends to increase future geographic diversification.