Scenarios and early warnings as dynamic capabilities to frame managerial attention

This paper proposes that relating scenario planning with early warning scanning provides firms with synergic capabilities that help frame top management attention on possible future contexts and how they might unfold. The research is based on two case studies and makes two scholarly contributions: it discusses cognitive aspects in sensing by analyzing scenario planning and early warning scanning as dynamic capabilities; and it provides an exploration of the synergies between both. The paper may also help reflective scenario planners and competitive intelligence professionals to better connect their work.

► Scenario planning (SP) is synergic with early warning systems (EWS). ► SP and EWS are powerful for of sensing new issues. ► Sensing can be seen as attention on possible future contexts and how they unfold. ► Sensing is aided by semi-temporary working teams and intranet social media tools.