Shell scenarios: What really happened in the 1970s and what may be learned for current world prospects

Much of the discussion of past scenario development in business has centred on Shell's pioneering work in the 1970s. This paper examines more closely what was done and published, drawing on the direct experience of some of those most closely involved in the detailed work and upon hitherto unpublished and uncited material, to present a rather different narrative than what is to be found in the existing literature. The result nevertheless retains the reputation of Shell's scenario methodology as useful for understanding and gaining advantage from an uncertain future, while shedding light on how current uncertainties may be better handled in corporate strategy appraisal.

► New insights on Shell's past scenarios. ► Contributions of internal specialists outlined. ► Past insights of current relevance for oil sector and economies. ► Missed opportunities explored.