| Article ID | Journal | Published Year | Pages | File Type |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 896988 | Technological Forecasting and Social Change | 2012 | 12 Pages |
The paper applies concepts of population dynamics to the evolution of communication technologies. The dynamics of voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics in 1948–2009 are examined via the Lotka–Volterra equations. Fixed lines and mobile phones are considered predatory technologies hunting for their ‘prey’ — voice service subscribers. Each technology squeezes out carrying capacity from its competitor. Mobile phones, however, exert a far greater impact on numbers of fixed telephone lines than vice versa. The conclusions consider some limitations of population dynamics approaches in economic modelling and discuss the different growth strategies associated with particular types of technologies.
► We model diffusion of the voice communication technologies in the Czech and Slovak Republics. ► The Lotka–Volterra models describe technology dynamics. ► Social, economic and technology change impact carrying capacity and reproduction rate. ► Mobile phones squeeze fixed lines out of market niche. ► Fixed lines, however, may benefit from changes in structure of service provided.
