Economic self-sufficiency among immigrant TANF-leavers: Welfare eligibility as a natural experiment

We capitalize on inter- and intra-state variation in state welfare rules regarding new immigrants to simulate a “natural experiment” that provides evidence on the impact of post-reform welfare (TANF) participation on immigrant women’s economic self-sufficiency. Using data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation (1996–1999 and 2001–2003 panels) and textual data on state welfare rules, we examine three measures of economic well-being – employment, employment stability, and wage trajectories – to obtain a comprehensive picture of immigrants’ post-welfare experiences. Findings suggest that immigrant TANF-leavers are no more or less likely to be employed than either TANF-eligible (but not receiving) or TANF-ineligible immigrant women (statistical and natural control groups, respectively). However, given employment, TANF-leavers have substantially longer spells of stable employment and steeper wage trajectories than immigrant women in both control groups.