Peaking demand factor-based reliability analysis of water distribution systems

Reliability values were calculated for a range of critical demand values and the corresponding confidence levels determined from the probability distributions. Water consumption was assumed to be pressure dependent and the modelling of the water distribution system was carried out accordingly. This peaking factor approach coupled with the statistical modelling of demands provides a more realistic way of incorporating variations in demands in the evaluation and reporting of system performance than the traditional single demand value approach in that the extent to which a network can satisfy any demand and the probability that the demand will occur can be recognized explicitly. The method is illustrated by an example.